Philippine Economic News: November Inflation Lower Than ExpectedNovember inflation fell to 9.9% Y/Y from October's rate of 11.2%, the third consecutive month of lower inflation and way below the central bank's forecast of 10.3-11.2%. Slumping global commodity prices translated into domestic price rollbacks for food and energy prices. Thus inflation in food, utilities and services contributed most to the decline in inflationary pressures. However, core inflation inched up to 7.9% in October from 7.8% the previous month.
Slowing food inflation and deflation in fuel prices.
In November food supply was boosted by ongoing rice harvests and the absence of typhoons allowed uninterrupted deliveries of crops from provinces into cities. Price rollbacks at the pump occurred almost on a weekly basis with crude oil prices in free fall. The average retail price of unleaded gasoline at end-November was P40.06/liter compared with P43.95 a year earlier. The corresponding month-end prices for diesel were P36.55 and P37.95. Consequently, inflation in services, which includes transportation and communications, fell to 7.5% Y/Y in November from 10.2% in September. Similar price cuts in LPG and kerosene pulled down inflation in fuel, light and water to 7.5% from 10.7% in the same period.
More price cuts expected.There has been no let up in the decline of international crude oil prices so more price cuts are forthcoming. As a result, regulated fares for public transportation soon will also be reduced. Agricultural commodity prices are also still falling so retail prices, eg, of wheat-based products will be cut. Lower electricity tariff rates have also been announced. Because these reductions affect goods and services outside of raw food and energy items, core inflation, which has continued to rise even as headline inflation declined, is likely close to peaking. The small 10-bp monthly increase in November is an indication of flattening out.
Flexibility in monetary policy.The central bank in its November statement said they were still concerned with rising core inflation and a weak peso and so the policy rate stayed at 6%, although reserve requirements were cut to 19% from 21%. With core inflation flattening out and its future direction clearly downwards, it should be a less pressing issue in the next Monetary Board meeting. Meanwhile central banks worldwide are engaged in aggressive monetary relaxation amid a worsening global financial crisis. That has made interest-rate differentials between the Philippines and the rest of the world wider, which should support the peso. This gives the central bank more flexibility and we would not be surprised at a cut in the overnight borrowing rate along with lower reserve requirements.
Weekly Philippine Stock PickWith the Philippine and global stocks in a bear market downtrend right now its been hard to find anything that might go up in price. Gold and gold stocks might be showing signs of a reversal to the upside from their current down-trends possibly in the short term I'm seeing.
Longer term technically, gold and gold stocks look like if they're going to go lower in price before trying to find a solid bottom of support. Short-term it looks like gold could have quick pop up which I wouldn't expect to last very long at all. A possible low-risk high-reward short-term buy trade could be in the making for gold and gold stocks.
With stock prices much lower than they were a year ago, some may think its time to buy stocks. Never forget the cliche, "the trend is your friend", and to go against it can be financial suicide. The trend right now is still down until the market proves otherwise. One way to try to bottom pick here and protect yourself in case the markets and stocks keep going down in price is to hedge.
Lets say you want to buy Banco de Oro at 22.75 a share, but if the price continues going lower below 21 you want to be protected from a loss lower than 21. You could take stop-loss at 21 or you could short-sell Banco de Oro at 21. Now you are hedged from losing anything further if the price goes much lower. On the other hand, if the price starts going up past 22.75, you won't be making any money yet on the buy long position if your short position at 21 is still open. You need to watch the stock price and when you think the price has bottomed out, close out the short position for a profit, and then wait hopefully the price will go back up or past where you went long. Hedging is a great way to invest and trade the markets, but more attention and management is needed to be applied to it once you are hedged. The tighter the prices you are hedging at is the best. Hedging with a larger spread between your long and short positions makes it harder to manage and profit from.
Click here for the Philippine Stock Exchange PSE Rules on Short SellingThis week I'm putting a short-term buy on Lepanto Mining. It could pop up, and extend gains depending what the price of gold does possibly.
Buy Long Lepanto Mining. Ticker LCBBuy Entry: .07 to .075
Stop-Loss: .069
Take Profit Area:.08, .09, and .10
Lepanto Mining Company ProfileLepanto Consolidated Mining Company (LC) was incorporated on September 8, 1986 and operated an enargite copper mine until 1997, after which, LC shifted to gold bullion production through its Victoria Project. LC also operated a copper flotation plant from August 2000 to December 2001, and restarted it in late 2006. LC sells its gold and silver bullion production to Heraeus Ltd. (Hong Kong) while its copper concentrate production are sold to various traders.
LC and its subsidiaries are involved in other businesses such as hauling, diamond drilling services, insurance, and manufacture of diamond tools. LC has two Mineral Production and Sharing Agreements for areas located in Mankayan, Benguet. The company's subsidiaries are Shipside, Inc., Diamond Drilling Corporation of the Philippines, Lepanto Investment and Development Corporation, Diamant Boart Philippines, Inc., and Far Southeast Gold Resources, Inc.
Click here to attend our Business Building Seminars and create Positive Cashflow so you can be a stock investor.Click the Lepanto Mining Stock Chart for a larger view.